Modeling Current and Future Climatic Conditions for California Lettuce

Abstract:

California specialty agriculture generates billions of dollars in revenue for the state; however, there are very few studies examining the potential effects and extent of climate change to this vital industry. Further, only a handful of studies extend past California’s biggest cash crops such as almonds, grapes, and pistachios, leaving a gap in the literature. This research aims to identify the suitability of agricultural land for growing lettuce in the present day in order to be able to project it to 2050 under future climate conditions. This is accomplished by processing tabular crop data for information regarding, for example, harvested acres and crop yields, while also utilizing the ArcPro SDM Toolbox for Maximum Entropy (Maxent) distribution modeling. Preliminary modeling results indicate that annual precipitation is the most important variable for lettuce. Tabular data results also indicate both acreage and yield value decreases from 2008-2020. Further research using Maxent modeling is required to determine whether these decreases can be attributed to a rise in average annual temperatures, another bioclimatic variable, or a group of variables.

Keywords: agriculture, Maxent, climate change, distribution modeling, suitability

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