Origin-Destination Dyads in Mexico-U.S. Migration Flows

Abstract:
<p dir="ltr">In this study, we investigate recent Mexico-U.S. migration patterns by analyzing origin-destination dyads based on their histories as sending and receiving areas, and propose an updated categorization of Mexican origin-states. We leverage a Mexican nationally representative survey, the National Survey of Demographic Dynamics (ENADID), which includes six survey waves spanning from 1992 to 2018. Our primary objectives include a data-driven update of previous typologies of Mexican migrant-sending states based on various migration metrics, specifying origin-destination dyads, and examining the sizes of flows between dyads. This classification of Mexican migrant-sending states results in a four-category typology: Established, Secondary, Emerging, and Minor origin states. Meanwhile, for U.S. destinations, we adopt an existing state-level categorization: Established, New, and Minor destinations. Preliminary findings indicate a notable decline in the total emigrant population across all years and origin-state categories in Mexico, with the most significant decline observed among Established-origin states. We find that, during this decline, Established, Secondary, and Minor origin-sending states exhibited relative stability in their emigration populations and share, while Emerging states displayed more fluctuation during certain time periods. Finally, the dyad flows between Established-origin states in Mexico to Established-destination states in the U.S. were the most prominent in both absolute emigrant population flow sizes and share, while Secondary-origin to Established-destination and Emerging-origin to Established-destination as the subsequent dominant streams. These findings shed light on the dynamic nature of Mexico-U.S. migration flow diversification and are suggestive of evolving roles of origin and destination state contexts in shaping these patterns.</p><p><br>
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Keywords: migration flows, origin-destination dyads, Mexican-migration, U.S.-destinations

Authors: